Dot Plot
A chart released quarterly by the Federal Reserve showing anonymous projections from FOMC members for future federal funds rates.
What is Dot Plot?
Introduced in 2012 as part of the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), the dot plot displays 19 dots (one per participant) for year-end rates up to three years ahead and longer-run. In September 2025, the median dot indicated a 4.4% rate by end-2025, 3.4% by 2026, and a long-run neutral of 2.9%. Projections assume appropriate policy to meet 2% inflation and maximum employment.
It provides forward guidance; a downward shift in June 2025 dots signaled three rate cuts, influencing market expectations and 10-year yields dropping 20 bps. Dots are not commitments but reflect individual views, with ranges showing uncertainty (e.g., 2025 dots from 3.9% to 5.1%).
In 2025, amid 2.6% GDP growth and 4.4% unemployment projections, the plot has guided futures markets to price in 75 bps of easing by December.
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